• Input cost volatility, driven in part by global supply disruptions, will impact planting decisions across Australia this season
• Crop mix is expected to shift, but the scale and location of change is difficult to predict
• Traditional methods of estimating crop area are less reliable this season. The only accurate way to understand crop area is to measure it as crops emerge
• DAS is the only provider to give early, quantitative signals on crop establishment across Australia
• DAS is providing crop establishment updates from mid-May 2026
• Crop ID (what is growing where) will be available from mid-June 2026
• Yield outcomes will depend on both input decisions and seasonal conditions, including the forecasted El Niño late in the 2026 season
• DAS' improved yield models use satellite and climate data to estimate production at the paddock level
• DAS' crop yield accuracy is now comparable to in-field estimates from agronomists
• This enables consistent tracking of both crop area and yield through the season

There’s a lot of discussion at the moment around diesel and urea pricing and availability, and what that might mean not only for the 2026 Australian winter crop, but grain production globally.

Recent geopolitical events, including conflict in the Middle East, are already impacting global fertiliser and fuel supply chains. A large share of global urea and ammonia trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions there are pushing prices higher and limiting availability.

How might limited access to fuel and fertiliser impact the winter crop?

At the farm level, the impact will come down to individual preparedness. Some growers will have fertiliser and fuel on-farm that was secured at lower prices. Others won’t. Many will be somewhere in between, with partial coverage and some exposure to further supply chain risk. Across the ~18,000 broadacre cropping businesses in Australia, the range of positions this year is broad.

It’s likely that some producers will move ahead as planned. Most will adjust. Input costs are materially different to the plans and budgets that were put together earlier in the year, and decisions will shift accordingly as growers look to maximise gross margin per hectare.

We will see substitution between crops, but the extent and location of that change is uncertain. A reduction in planned wheat area is likely in some regions, with barley currently offering a better gross margin. Legume area is also expected to increase, with a widespread view that urea prices will remain elevated into 2027. On top of this, the forecast El Niño later this year introduces another layer of risk. Some growers may increase fallow area to conserve moisture and manage cash, while positioning for a potentially tighter global grain market in 2027.

When you consider all of this together, predicting winter crop area using historical plantings, surveys or general sentiment becomes very difficult. The only reliable way to understand what has been planted is to measure the crop as it emerges.

How can I remotely track grain production and receive insights as soon as they emerge?

Over the coming weeks, DAS will begin releasing early signals on crop establishment. This provides a quantitative way to track crop area and crop mix as it comes out of the ground, rather than relying on assumptions or lagged reporting. Canola will be the first visible signal, with planted area estimates expected in mid-July. This will be followed by cereals versus legumes versus canola in early August, and a full crop breakdown later in the month.

The other side of the equation is yield.

Even once crop area becomes clear, production outcomes this year will depend on how growers respond to input costs through the season, and how seasonal conditions unfold. The El Niño outlook is an important factor here.

Historically, yield at scale has been difficult to quantify. Over the past 18 months, DAS has developed yield prediction models that combine satellite imagery with daily climate data, including rainfall, temperature, frost and heat stress, to estimate yield at the paddock level. These models are now being used by DAFF and the ABS, and have been tested against recent seasons and actual paddock yields.

A few points to note:

• DAS' accuracy is now comparable to in-field estimates from agronomists
• In some cases, particularly canola, model estimates are more accurate than field estimates
• Results show a 2–3x improvement on previous benchmark models
• Predictions are generated consistently across all regions, not just sampled areas

In practice, this provides a consistent way to monitor crop growth and forecast production through the season. Not just what has been planted, but what is likely to be produced, and how that production is evolving as conditions change.

How can you receive crop planted area, crop mix and crop yield data for Australia's winter crop?

If uncertainty around global events, crop area or production this year is constraining decisions, we can step through how this information can be used in more detail. 

Reach out to our team via our 'Contact Us' page and we will get in touch with you to discuss receiving Grain Intelligence. 

Follow DAS on Linkedin for our latest updates.