New analysis from DAS shows almost one million hectares of pasture have been converted to crops over the past two winter seasons, building on a structural land-use shift the company has been tracking since 2020.

While the Federal Government’s live sheep export ban has added further uncertainty for some producers, DAS stresses that the data points to a longer-term, multi-factor shift in how Australian farmland is being used.

Using paddock-level data, DAS has observed a sustained move away from longer-term grazing enterprises into cropping across multiple regions.

Western Australia and New South Wales account for more than two-thirds of the recent change, with Western Australia alone adding around 120,000 hectares of newly cropped land this season and helping push Australia’s total winter crop area beyond 23 million hectares.

DAS CEO Anthony Willmott said the trend reflects a combination of technological advancement, industry restructuring and stronger cropping profitability.

“We can now see, paddock by paddock, where grazing country has already moved into wheat, barley or canola — and where that change is likely to accelerate in the years ahead,” Willmott said.

“Our analysis suggests this isn’t just a short-term reaction to one policy decision. It’s a structural shift supported by better drainage, better varieties and better agronomy, combined with changing ownership and a long-running decline in sheep numbers in some regions.”

Image: This 1,892 ha property southeast of Gairdner was sold in January 2025 and after at least 5 years of continuous pasture it was planted to canola, wheat and barley in 2025.

DAS analysts note that much of the change appears to be driven by land sales and new ownership, rather than existing farmers simply pivoting overnight. A broad decline in the sheep industry is pushing some landholders out of grazing enterprises, while improved cropping margins are encouraging a general move away from livestock in many areas.

In Western Australia, average yields of close to 3 tonnes per hectare for wheat, nearly 3.7 tonnes for barley and around 2 tonnes for canola in recent seasons have made cropping highly competitive with sheep in many districts.

In high-rainfall zones of Western Australia, Victoria and New South Wales, historically wet or waterlogged paddocks are becoming viable for cropping thanks to expanded use of subsurface and tile drainage systems. In low-rainfall regions, such as parts of the eastern Western Australian Wheatbelt, improvements in plant breeding, agronomy and soil amelioration have increased water-use efficiency and made very dry environments more suitable for cropping.

The Murray irrigation region is also seeing former dairy and high-intensity grazing land transition to cropping, supported by good soils, irrigation access and favourable seasonal conditions.