In a significant step forward for agricultural forecasting, DAS (Digital Agriculture Services) has completely redeveloped its crop yield prediction models, increasing our accuracy for wheat, barley, and canola yield estimation at the paddock scale.

These advances deliver improved precision for the grains industry, crop insurers and farm lenders as they manage risk and seasonal variability.

The new DAS models show a dramatic uplift in accuracy over previous benchmarks. The new predictions are 3–4 times more accurate at the paddock scale than estimates produced using other industry standard yield data.

This release also complements DAS’s planted area estimates, enabling customers to understand not just local yields, but total estimated production across regions and crops for every paddock in Australia.

A significant factor in this enhanced precision is the incorporation of daily climate data, including rainfall, frost events, and ripening conditions, which are critical determinants of crop yield. This integration of detailed climate data, not directly accounted for in other industry models, demonstrably improved model precision in experiments conducted by DAS.

Results: 

• Wheat: +/- 26% accuracy (vs. 67% for other industry data)
  
  
• Barley: +/- 10% accuracy (vs. 34% for other industry data)
  
  
• Canola: +/- 27% accuracy (vs. 97% for other industry data)

Yield and production forecasting is one of the most commercially valuable insights in the grain sector. It underpins everything from trading positions and supply chain logistics to crop insurance risk models and capital allocation. Until now, however, consistent, high-accuracy yield forecasts for every paddock in Australia have remained elusive.

The new DAS yield models close this gap, offering more dependable production estimates and giving customers a crucial edge in fast-moving grain markets.

Yield forecasts are available to DAS Grain Intelligence customers from late August 2025, accuracy will increase through October 2025 — aligning with peak decision-making periods for grain supply chain stakeholders.

Find out exactly what's included with DAS Grain Intelligence by visiting the website page. 

To speak with our team about starting with Grain Intelligence for this winter season - fill out the form below and we will get back to you.