Australian growers have substantially reduced wheat plantings across key grain-growing regions this season, while barley has gained significant ground, according to the latest crop reporting from DAS (Digital Agriculture Services).
Nationally, DAS data shows wheat area is down 16.6% compared with 2025, while barley has increased 14.4%.
The shift is particularly pronounced in Western Australia, where wheat plantings are down 17% and barley plantings have increased 24%. Total cropped area in the state is virtually unchanged, down just 0.6%, pointing to a clear change in crop choice rather than an overall reduction in planting. Wheat now accounts for 37.9% of WA’s cropped area, down from 45.4% last year.
New South Wales has recorded an even larger 24.5% fall in wheat area, while barley has increased 21%. Unlike WA, however, the state has also planted substantially less land Australian growers entered the 2026 planting season facing sharply higher fuel and fertiliser costs following the outbreak of war in Iran and disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. DAS flagged at the time that growers were likely to substitute between crops, with wheat gross margins lower than most other crops.
Australian growers entered the 2026 planting season facing sharply higher fuel and fertiliser costs following the outbreak of war in Iran and disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. DAS flagged at the time that growers were likely to substitute between crops, with wheat gross margins lower than most other crops.
Since those planting decisions were made, global wheat markets have shifted sharply. Wheat prices have climbed more than 50% since the start of the year and recently reached their highest level in more than three years, as weather disruptions and geopolitical instability put further pressure on global grain supply.
DAS’s Head of Data Science, Sam Atkinson, said the latest satellite observations now confirm the full extent of what growers have actually planted and what is happening on the ground.
"Before the season begins, forecasts draw on grower surveys, market conditions, seasonal outlooks and what we know about crop rotations from previous years. These forecasts tend to be more conservative and until the crop emerges, they are still only forecasts," Atkinson said.
"We can now, via our methods, capture the full extent of the predicted swing to barley and canola. We have the ability to capture the extent of not only those crops, but every crop growing across more than one million paddocks nationally and how they’re playing out."
Two seasons, two stories: Queensland struggles to keep pace
The latest reporting also shows a stark divide in the 2026 winter cropping season, with South Australia and Victoria well ahead of normal establishment while Queensland continues to lag.
South Australia’s establishment trajectory has “no recent historical analogue” in DAS records. Three-quarters of its final established area was in place by mid-June, around four weeks ahead of the 2020-25 norm. Parts of the Mallee and western Eyre Peninsula were established four to five weeks earlier than usual.
Victoria has experienced a similarly early season. Half of its final established area was in place by 8 June, around three weeks ahead of the usual pace, with parts of the Mallee and Wimmera three to four weeks earlier than normal.
Queensland tells a very different story. Total cropped area is down almost 40% from 2025, with wheat area down 39%. Unlike Western Australia and New South Wales, no major crop has increased in Queensland, pointing to a broad contraction in planting rather than a shift between crops.
Just 60% of its potential crop area had reached establishment by 21 August, 36 percentage points below the 2020-25 average and by far the largest shortfall of any state this season.
“Time is running out for these late crops. Some cereal paddocks in southern Queensland still have so little biomass that they are too small for our methods to separate from fallow, yet they are only six weeks from the typical start of harvest,” Atkinson said.
|
State |
Wheat area change vs 2025 |
|
Queensland |
-38.6% |
|
New South Wales |
-24.5% |
|
Western Australia |
-17.0% |
|
Victoria |
-4.1% |
|
South Australia |
-1.7% |
|
National |
-16.6% |
About DAS Grain Intelligence
DAS Grain Intelligence is Australia's market-leading source of quantitative grain production intelligence, providing organisations across the grain supply chain with timely insights into seasonal conditions, crop production and grain supply across Australia's major cropping regions.
Powered by satellite imagery, AI, and geospatial analytics - and trusted by ABARES and the Australian Bureau of Statistics - DAS Grain Intelligence delivers highly accurate crop area, crop type, yield, production and harvest insights, supported by up to 20 years of historical crop productivity data. The platform helps grain traders, agribusinesses, financial institutions, insurers and government agencies monitor seasonal developments, assess risk and make more informed commercial decisions.