15 June 2026
South Australia's winter crop is off to its strongest start in years, while Victoria has recorded the largest fortnightly jump in crop establishment nationally, highlighting a remarkable turnaround from the difficult start to the 2025 season.
DAS Grain Intelligence Crop Establishment tracking shows 71% of South Australia's maximum possible winter cropping area has now reached establishment, compared to just 1.3% at the same time last year. Victoria has reached 62% establishment, up from just 9.7% this time in 2025.
Nationally, 14.7 million hectares have reached establishment, almost double the 7.8 million hectares established by mid-June last year and well ahead of the 2020-25 average of 9.5 million hectares.
DAS defines establishment as detectable plant growth in a paddock, which may be crop, pasture or weeds, so the headline figures capture all green paddocks. The area that can be confirmed as crop, based on the pre-sowing weed knockdown signature, is lower: in South Australia it is currently around 46% of the potential cropping area, with much of the remaining green-up not yet separable from pasture.
Image 1: Yorke Peninsula, SA captured on 5 June 2025
Image 2: Yorke Peninsula, SA captured on 14 June 2026, where crops (green) are beginning to establish.
DAS Earth Observation Lead, Sam Atkinson, said the latest data confirms that the early and extensive break of season across southern Australia is now translating into widespread establishment across key grain-growing regions.
"What we are seeing now is that growers are capitalising on the early break to get crops out of the ground at their preferred timing," Atkinson said.
"A fortnight ago we saw that South Australia and Victoria were well ahead of average, and that has since accelerated."
South Australia recorded one of the most exceptional starts observed by DAS. At 71% established, the state is running far ahead of its historical average of 19.5% for this point in the season, with no close analogue in the DAS establishment record dating back to 2018.
Across South Australia's major cropping regions, establishment is tracking at unprecedented levels. Ceduna is 93% established, Streaky Bay 89%, Karoonda East Murray 88% and Southern Mallee 88%, all many multiples above their long-term averages for mid-June.
Victoria recorded the largest increase of any state over the past fortnight, climbing from 28% to 62% establishment. Strong early-season conditions have driven rapid progress across the Mallee, Wimmera and north-east, with Mildura reaching 80% establishment and Northern Grampians 69%.
"For growers across large parts of South Australia and Victoria, this season is dramatically different to where things stood at the same point last year," Atkinson said.
The national figures also reveal an increasingly divided season across Australia's grain belt.
While southern regions continue to surge ahead, parts of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland remain well behind normal establishment timing after waiting until late May for opening rain.
Queensland remains the only state tracking substantially below its historical pace, with just 13% of paddocks established compared to a long-term average of 34% for this time of year.
Major northern grain-producing districts including Walgett, Moree Plains, Coonamble and Warren in New South Wales, along with Balonne and Goondiwindi in Queensland, remain largely unestablished and are running 20 to 30 percentage points behind their historical pace.
"The southern grain belt has benefited enormously from the early break, while the establishment trajectory in districts like Walgett, Moree Plains and Goondiwindi is similar to 2019" Atkinson said.
Western Australia is modestly ahead of its 2020-25 average , with 39% of paddocks established and the state's seasonal trajectory closely resembling 2025, a year that delivered record grain production on the back of record planted area and good ripening conditions.
While crop establishment is only one early indicator of seasonal performance, the latest figures demonstrate that Australia's southern grain-producing regions have had an ideal start heading into the looming El Nino.
DAS Grain Intelligence is Australia's market-leading source of quantitative grain production intelligence, providing organisations across the grain supply chain with timely insights into seasonal conditions, crop production and grain supply across Australia's major cropping regions.
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